As regular readers will know, the design talent crisis is a subject I’m very passionate about. Of course, this talent crisis is really about how companies who are opting for AI instead of junior-level humans, are robbing themselves of a human expertise to control the AI agents of the future, and neglecting a generation of talented and enthusiastic young people.

Also obviously, this goes beyond the design discipline. Annie Hedgpeth, writing for the People Work blog, says that “AI is replacing the training ground not replacing expertise.”

We used to have a training ground for junior engineers, but now AI is increasingly automating away that work. Both studies I referenced above cited the same thing - AI is getting good at automating junior work while only augmenting senior work. So the evidence doesn’t show that AI is going to replace everyone; it’s just removing the apprenticeship ladder.

From the Sep 2025 Harvard University paper, “Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change: Evidence from U.S. Résumé and Job Posting Data.” (link)

And then she echoes my worry:

So what happens in 10-20 years when the current senior engineers retire? Where do the next batch of seniors come from? The ones who can architect complex systems and make good judgment calls when faced with uncertain situations? Those are skills that are developed through years of work that starts simple and grows in complexity, through human mentorship.

We’re setting ourselves up for a timing mismatch, at best. We’re eliminating junior jobs in hopes that AI will get good enough in the next 10-20 years to handle even complex, human judgment calls. And if we’re wrong about that, then we have far fewer people in the pipeline of senior engineers to solve those problems.