Every major technological advancement in design—shifting from paste-up to desktop publishing and from print to web—created temporary disruption and ultimately expanded the field. There are so many more designers than 40 years ago. It’s true. It’s also, as David Oks points out, only half the story.

Oks dismantles the famous ATM parable by finishing it. US bank teller employment held steady through the entire ATM era—332,000 in 2010—then collapsed to 164,000 by 2022. Not because of ATMs. Because the iPhone made the branch irrelevant:

The ATM tried to do the teller’s job better, faster, cheaper; it tried to fit capital into a labor-shaped hole; but the iPhone made the teller’s job irrelevant. One automated tasks within an existing paradigm, and the other created a new paradigm in which those tasks simply didn’t need to exist at all. And it is paradigm replacement, not task automation, that actually displaces workers—and, conversely, unlocks the latent productivity within any technology.

The application to AI is direct:

The history of technology, even exceptionally powerful general-purpose technology, tells us that as long as you are trying to fit capital into labor-shaped holes you will find yourself confronted by endless frictions: just as with electricity, the productivity inherent in any technology is unleashed only when you figure out how to organize work around it, rather than slotting it into what already exists.

That maps to design. AI tools that automate tasks inside Figma—generating variants, filling out documentation—are the ATM. If AI enables a different way of organizing product work entirely, that’s the iPhone.

Oks again:

The ATM parable is a comforting narrative; and in times of uncertainty and fear we search naturally for solace and comfort wherever it may come. But even when it comes to bank tellers, it’s only the first half of the story.

I’ve been telling the comforting half. Oks makes a good case that the other half matters too.