Jakob Nielsen’s AI-generated illustrations do his work no favors. His visual taste is, to put it kindly, not mine. But Jakob Nielsen has done something few technology forecasters ever do: he pulled out papers from 1993 and 1996, scored 23 predictions against computing in 2026, and published the misses alongside the hits.

The 71% headline is Nielsen’s own grade, and he acknowledges the obvious conflict:

Two clarifications. First, timing gets no separate penalty because the delay affects nearly every row. Neither paper promised a full system within a decade; Noncommand explicitly said such a system was unlikely “within the next ten years, which is about as far as one can predict in the computer field with a minimum of credibility.” The vision nonetheless took 30 years to become a widely shipped product pattern, a delay I return to in the lessons.

Second, I’m grading my own homework, which is an obvious conflict of interest. I’ve tried to score against what shipped and stuck, not against what demos well, and I show every score so you can regrade me.

So I wouldn’t get hung up on whether 71% is exactly right. Nielsen and his late co-author, computer scientist Don Gentner, still saw an intent-driven interface decades before machine learning made one practical. Some of the details are uncanny; others reveal how a sound principle can survive the failure of its original mechanism.

Nielsen on one of those switcheroos:

In 1993, I described moving an on-screen object “by selecting it by looking at it and then pressing a selection button (to prevent accidental selection).” In February 2024, Apple shipped Vision Pro with the same core selection pattern: look at a target, then pinch to commit. The prediction reappeared three decades later with its confirmation step intact. Of course, the Vision Pro remains a niche product, which is why the bandwidth and interaction-stream rows score in the middle of the scale: the high-bandwidth immersive future arrived, but as a sideshow. The main stage went to the lowest-bandwidth input device imaginable: an empty text field.

The physical channel narrowed while the semantic channel widened. Our mistake was measuring the interface by how much raw data crossed it rather than by how much work each user token could trigger. The better metric for AI is intent leverage: useful output divided by the effort required to specify the goal.

And this 1996 sentence comes remarkably close to describing the interface designers should be building beyond the prompt box:

We assumed users already knew what they wanted and just needed a better way to say it. Conversational AI revealed that human intent is rarely a pre-formed cognitive object just waiting to be translated; rather, intent is fluid and often discovers itself through the act of conversation. Current AI user interfaces do little to help users figure out their intent, but even primitive AI UX already supports some degree of iterative co-articulation.

One sentence from 1996 aged better than everything else Don and I wrote: “Real expressive power comes from the combination of language, examples, and pointing.” That’s a working definition of multimodal prompting: type your intent, paste an example of what you want, and point by uploading an image or selecting a region. If I could grade a single sentence at 100%, this is the one.

Language is best for leaping across a large solution space: “make this calmer,” “compare these contracts,” or “plan a week in Kyoto.” Pointing is best for local correction: this paragraph, that number, the face in the upper-right corner. Examples communicate qualities users can’t easily name. The winning AI interface will therefore let language propose, examples constrain, and pointing repair.

Nielsen and Gentner’s prediction worked because the underlying idea was stronger than the technologies they had available. They got the vehicle and timing wrong. They also expected expert users to benefit most. Yet language, examples, and pointing still sound like a better creative interface than an empty text field.