Designers have been saying this for years. Cameras don’t take pictures, photographers do. Tools don’t make you a better designer. Now the PM world is arriving at the same conclusion.

Shreyas Doshi argues that AI tools will commoditize across companies—any effective tool becomes common knowledge—and the only durable career moat is the human judgment applied on top of AI outputs. He calls it “Product Sense.”

Tools have never been a significant source of alpha in product success and that is not changing with AI tools. What this means for you personally is that - while you can and should use all the AI tools you can - you cannot bank on your use of those AI tools today to provide you a long-term advantage in your product career.

Replace “product people” with “designers” and this could be a post on my blog. The five skills Shreyas decomposes Product Sense into—empathy, simulation, strategic thinking, taste, creative execution—are skills good designers have cultivated under different names for decades.

The piece includes an appended Claude conversation that stress-tests the argument. The sharpest exchange challenges the Silicon Valley orthodoxy that fast B+ beats slow A+:

In practice, the B+ decision made quickly tends to create a cascade of follow-on decisions, each of which is also slightly off, and you end up significantly off-course in ways that are expensive to correct. Whereas the A+ decision, even if it takes longer, tends to set you on a trajectory where subsequent decisions are easier and more obvious. The compounding effect favors quality of judgment, not speed of judgment.

Good judgment compounds. Bad judgment compounds too, just in the wrong direction.