George Anders, in the Wall Street Journal, makes the case that the 1920s offer a usable template for the AI decade. His strongest evidence is the spillover-jobs data:
By 1930, more than 80,000 people were working as electricians, a profession that hardly existed a decade before. Census data also showed that 168,000 people were working in rubber factories, most of them making tires to accommodate Detroit’s booming production of cars, trucks and buses. Another 450,000 people were building roads, bridges and other structures needed by the ever expanding auto industry.
The ATM parable had the same problem: the version that ends in 2010, with bank-teller employment intact, is the one we love to retell. The version that ends in 2022, with teller jobs cut in half by the iPhone, is the one we leave out. Anders’s 80,000 electricians are real. So is the question of which of them got displaced when the next technology arrived.
Anders does, to his credit, take the costs seriously. He spends a section on the radio fight:
In 1927, H.G. Wells, the British author and intellectual, called radio “inferior” entertainment that should be listened to “only by the sick, the lonely and the suffering.” David Sarnoff, general manager of Radio Corp. of America, shot back that he was trying to improve “the happiness of the nation” by delivering popular music to millions of people. Nearly a century later, that same argument still flares, though now it is more likely to involve TikTok, Reddit or YouTube, instead of dear old radio. The doubters always have a point; with the passage of time, the innovators usually win out.
The early evidence on AI’s job-creation side is thinner than the 1920s comparison flatters: Anthropic’s own researchers find a 14% drop in the job-finding rate for 22-to-25-year-olds in exposed occupations since ChatGPT launched, even as overall unemployment holds. The new electricians of our decade may exist. They just may not be the people getting hired right now.
The safety side of Anders’s case is the one I want to see more of. Cars in 1920 killed at twenty times today’s per-mile rate, and the country chose not to live with that:
Auto safety got better, too, with both industry and government taking action. Better mirrors, better brakes and shatterproof windshields became standard. Cities such as Los Angeles and Detroit installed red-yellow-green traffic lights that governed drivers’ actions on busy streets. New Jersey became the first state to insist on driver’s licenses, with the state’s motor-vehicle commissioner in 1924 declaring: “It is an absolute necessity to do this in order to conserve human life.”
Whether the next century treats our decade as kindly depends on whether we put rearview mirrors and traffic lights on AI before the death rates make us, and whether we do it under the same kind of duress the 1920s did.
