The behavioral gap, the calcified companies, the startups shipping while incumbents argue about roadmap slides: there’s an economic force underneath all of it. Andy Coenen names it. He picks up from Matt Shumer’s “Something Big Is Happening“ and builds the case that we’re living through a Software Industrial Revolution, where the cost of producing software collapses the way textiles did in the 18th century.
His thesis on what survives the cost collapse:
Because while the act of building software will fundamentally change, software engineering has never really been about producing code. It’s about understanding and modeling domains, managing complexity (especially over time), and the dynamic interplay between software and the real world as the system evolves. And while the ability to produce code by hand is rapidly becoming irrelevant, the core skills of software engineering will only become more important as we radically scale up the amount of software in the world.
Replace “software engineering” with “product design” and “producing code” with “producing mockups” and you have the argument I made in Product Design Is Changing. The artifact was never the job. The judgment was.
Coenen again, on what abundance looks like in practice:
My friend, Dr. Steve Blum, is a brilliant cancer researcher. Steve’s work deals with massive amounts of data, and analyzing that data is a major bottleneck. But writing software to do so is extremely difficult, and there’s no world where Steve’s limited attention ought to be spent on python venv management.
The Software Industrial Revolution means that Dr. Blum and thousands of his colleagues have all, suddenly, almost magically, been given massive new leverage via the ability to conjure up almost any tool imaginable, on demand. This is like giving every cancer researcher in the world a team of world-class software engineers on staff overnight, for less than the price of Netflix. Frankly, I think this is nothing short of miraculous.
Now do that thought experiment for design. Every small business owner who needs a custom tool, every nonprofit that can’t afford a design team. The Industrial Revolution didn’t just make cloth cheap. It made good cloth cheap. That’s the part designers should be paying attention to.
